The Political Thread

[Hawkmumbler]

Well this is a political shit storm waiting to happen.

[Goaty]

It been shite storm since 24 June 2016!

[IndigoPrime]

The most depressing thing about it all is this is highly likely to be the general view.

I'm already seeing that. "There's no-one to vote for!" "I'm sick of elections!" "I can't vote for the Lib Dems after they sold out on student fees!"

This is one of the reasons why May has cynically timed this, and also yet another why Corbyn is a massive idiot, letting his weak party be checkmated in such rapid and decisive fashion.

The local elections will give some indication of how vulnerable MP's of all stripes are.

The twin problems are arrogance and money. I covered arrogance earlier – that issue of a grand coalition making a win possible but the reality of such a thing being almost impossible. But money is also a factor: LDs could win a ton of seats back, if they could do a Richmond Park in every one. They just can't, unless some very rich people very rapidly fling a load of money their way. The Greens are in an even worse position, and needed to crowdfund in 2015 to stand in as many seats as they did. I don't know what the state of Labour's finances is these days, but I'm seeing a lot of life-long Labour voters I know now saying they're only going to vote for the party again if it's to keep out a Tory. Otherwise they're mulling which pro-Brexit part has the best shot.

[Tjm86]

That's pretty much it isn't it.  You really do get a sense of what this crowd will be like if they get their way.  I was trying to explain to my daughter how important this all is.  Her generation are going to be the first to be seriously affected by this.

Maybe we need to do a Brewster.

[Theblazeuk]

Tim Farron burned me on the Lib Dems immediately after the Richmond Park vote, where I voted for Sarah Olney but couldn't stand Farron's grandstanding attack on Labour (rather than say, the Tories or Zac Goldsmith in particular) - Give it over Tim. Stop pissing all over the goodwill that let you win a single seat.

[Tjm86]

What the hell are you talking about, how did I piss on your goodwill?

[Tjm86]

[Jimmy Baker's Assistant]

Only an idiot would abstain.

I'm going to vote tactically for the LibDems in the slim hope that Remainers get our act together and galvanise behind the parties that are still fighting Brexit. Also, I basically agree with the LibDems anyway, I just don't trust them.

[IndigoPrime]

Tim Farron burned me on the Lib Dems immediately after the Richmond Park vote, where I voted for Sarah Olney but couldn't stand Farron's grandstanding attack on Labour (rather than say, the Tories or Zac Goldsmith in particular) - Give it over Tim. Stop pissing all over the goodwill that let you win a single seat.

This would be after Labour repeatedly said that if there was to be any kind of deal in Richmond Park, it's the Lib Dems who should step aside, because Labour? I'm not surprised Farron then went off on one a bit. But this does showcase the problem: Labour and the Lib Dems keep beating each other up, but each party only tends to do well when the other does too. Labour and the LDs taking a few per cent off of each other will make no difference in June – they need to be taking votes from the Tories. And to do so, they need to be coordinated, or we'll be looking at loads of seats where they came second and third, with a vote share in excess of the Tory incumbent.

Again, this election is simply about Brexit and this Tory government being in absolute control AND saying it has the mandate to do whatever the hell it wants. Nothing else matters. So unless you want that, vote accordingly, no matter how much doing so stinks, and how much you might hate Corbyn, Farron or whoever.

[Professor Bear]

Saw a Twitter theory that May hasn't made a "strategic decision" to hold a GE, she's been forced into it because her majority is so narrow that if the CPS investigations into her party's election fraud make a series of byelections unavoidable, the government wouldn't have legal legitimacy.

I wouldn't be surprised to find loads of Labour MP's demurring on Corbyn support, preferring to galvanise local support, particularly in light of how well it has gone recently.

It's likely the other way around, as the leadership contest of last year exposed - in some cases quite bitter - divisions between many Labour MPs and their constituents.  The one thing Corbyn unquestionably has on his side is grassroots and membership support, but social media bots can't actually vote, so you should look to see a lot of MPs ignoring the media and going cap-in-hand to groups like Momentum, or - probably more likely - the NEC suspending a lot of CLPs and taking direct control so that MPs can't be deselected and replaced with left-wingers with strong local ties.

[Tjm86]

Fair point but then that seems an argument in favour of Corbyn being asked to stay away. 

[Professor Bear]

That would just mean loads of "Corbyn didn't try hard enough in the election" headlines.  Although we'll get those anyway.

[Definitely Not Mister Pops]

Ye never know, Trumps endorsement could scupper May

[Theblazeuk]

But this does showcase the problem: Labour and the Lib Dems keep beating each other up, but each party only tends to do well when the other does too. Labour and the LDs taking a few per cent off of each other will make no difference in June – they need to be taking votes from the Tories. And to do so, they need to be coordinated, or we'll be looking at loads of seats where they came second and third, with a vote share in excess of the Tory incumbent.

Again, this election is simply about Brexit and this Tory government being in absolute control AND saying it has the mandate to do whatever the hell it wants. Nothing else matters. So unless you want that, vote accordingly, no matter how much doing so stinks

Indeed. I was frustrated by Labour's approach but felt like it was a sure 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' situation, where everything was Corbyn/Momentum's fault no matter what happened. Run a doomed-to-fail campaign that can only at best sabotage the least-worst option? Or acknowledge political and practical reality and be slated for conceding defeat and weak leadership?

Basically if Farron had just showed the slightest bit of class, he might have won me a bit further round after the shattering disappointment of the party's role in the coalition years.

As it is... well, the Richmond Park vote is going to be repeated once more I suppose? So soon.

[Goaty]

Daily Mail Online are really shit, tell us to vote Tory.